Palestinians vote: Netanyahu uncommitted to two-state solution, Hamas and Fatah responsible for division

PNN/ Bethlehem/
The latest poll on the Palestinian public opinion focusing on the political and economic situations, prepared by Dr. Nabil Kukali, revealed the following key results:

  • (50.3 %) of the Palestinians hold the two major movements, Fatah and Hamas, accountable for the continuation of the power division between Gaza and the West Bank.

  • (50.7 %) believe to various extents that the Iranian intervention in the region is bad.

  • (79.2 %) do not believe to various degrees that Netanyahu’s government is committed to the two-state solution of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

  • (68.3 %) evaluate their economic situations as ‘bad’.

  • (54.1 %) oppose the outbreak of a third Intifada as a result of the stalemate of the Israeli-Palestinian negotiations.

The latest poll prepared by Dr. Nabil Kukali and conducted by the Palestinian Center for Public Opinion (www.pcpo.org), during the period from May 27 – June 15, 2015 covered a random sample of (1000) Palestinian respondents representing the various demographic specimens of Palestinians (18 years and above) living in the West Bank, including East Jerusalem, and Gaza Strip. It revealed that (79.2 %) of the Palestinian public to various degrees do not believe that Netanyahu’s government is committed to the two-state solution of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

Dr. Nabil Kukali, President and founder of the Palestinian Center for Public Opinion, said in a statement that the Palestinian public hold both major parties, Fatah and Hamas, equally accountable for not achieving the national reconciliation, as all should be held accountable for that. Dr. Kukali added that the failure to achieve the national reconciliation awfully affects the Palestinian cause, dispels the capacities of the Palestinian people and drains their efforts. In a desperate perspective, the majority of the Palestinian public believe that any future reconciliation meetings between Fatah and Hamas will not yield any results, as each party ultimately sticks to its point of view and is not ready to compromise or sacrifice for the sake of the public interest.

Dr. Kukali further stated that the Palestinian public do not trust the commitment of Netanyahu’s government to the two-state solution as a basis for a just and lasting solution of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and consequently doubt the ability of both leaderships, the Palestinian and the Israeli, to cooperate together for reaching a just and comprehensive peace solution that would warrant security and peace for all peoples of the region.

Dr. Kukali concluded his comments saying that in case in the coming PLC elections two competitive Fatah lists would run the elections, this would weaken the possibility of Fatah’s winning these elections.

Poll results in details:

Perspective of a third uprising (Intifada)

Responding to the question:”Should the peace negotiations between the Israelis and the Palestinians fail, would you then support or oppose the outbreak of a third Intifada ?”, (54.1 %) said “I oppose”, (28.7 %) “I support” and (17.2 %) answered “I don’t know”.

Netanyahu’s Government

With regard to the question:”What is the extent of your confidence that Netanyahu’s government is committed to a fair and lasting two-state solution for the Israeli-Palestinian conflict?”,

(1.6 %) said:”I’m very confident”, (9.9 %) said:”somehow confident”, (29.2 %) “not so much confident”, (50 %) “not confident at all”, and (9.3 %) answered:”I don’t know”.

Candidates’ Lists for the PLC-elections

Regarding the question:”Suppose new PLC elections would be held and three candidates’ lists run these elections – the first backed by Mahmoud Abbas, the second by Ismael Haniyyeh and the third one by Mohammad Dahlan, for which one would you vote ?”, (29.3 %) said:”for the first list backed by Mahmoud Abbas”, (21.1 %) “for the second list backed by Ismael Haniyyeh” and (9.8 %) would vote for the third list backed by Mohammad Dahlan, whilst (24 %) said they didn’t decide yet whether to participate in the elections or not, and (15.8 %) said “I don’t know”.

The Division

Responding to the question:”Who should be held accountable, in your point of view, for the continuation of the power division between Gaza and the West Bank, is it Hamas or Fatah ?”,

(16.9 %) said:”Hamas”, (11.5 %) “Fatah”, (51.6 %) “both parties”, (11.3 %) “none of them”, (4.2 %) “other”, and (4.5 %) answered “I don’t know”.

The Iranian Intervention

With respect to the question:”What do you think about the Iranian intervention in the region ?”, (6.4 %) said:”It’s very good”, (30.2 %) said “somewhat good”, (30.1 %) “somehow bad”,

(20.6 %) “very bad” and (12.7 %) answered “I don’t know”.

Mecca 2

Regarding the question:”Efforts are now exerted to hold a reconciliation meeting between Fatah and Hamas (Mecca 2) in the coming few weeks in Saudi Arabia. Do you think this meeting will succeed or fail?”, (4.1 %) said:”it will surely succeed”, (29.8 %) “it will somehow succeed”, (35.1 %) said:”It will surely fail”, (20.6 %):”it will somehow fail”, and (10.4 %) said:”I don’t know”.

Performance of President Mahmoud Abbas

Responding to the question:”What degree would you give the performance of Abu Mazin, President Mahmoud Abbas, in his administration of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict? Please determine your rating degree on a scale from (1) to (10), where (1) stands for the lowest rating and (10) for the highest rating degree”. The result was a content with an average rating of (5.1) at a standard deviation of (2.3) degrees, which means that the Palestinian public, in general, is neither content, nor discontent, with the President’s performance.

And in this context, the respondents were asked to rate also the President’s performance to putting an end to the internal Palestinian conflict between Fatah and Hamas on the same scale from (1) to (10). The result came also very close to the one in the foregoing question, specifically (5.11) at a standard deviation of (2.26) degrees, which means also that the Palestinian public, in general, is neither content, nor discontent, with the President’s performance in this issue.

The Economic Situation in general

With respect to the question:”What is your rating of the economic situation, in general, in the Palestinian territories ?”,(5.6 %) said “good”, (25.0 %) “fair” (mediocre), (68.3 %) “bad”, and (1.1 %) said:”I don’t know”.

And to the additional question in this context:”Do you think that the economic situation in our country would improve, recede, or would remain unchanged ?”, (29.3 %) said “would improve”, (41.4 %) “would recede”, (26.9 %) said:”would not change” and (2.4 %) answered:”I don’t know”.

National (Social) Solidarity Act

In regard to the question:”The Palestinian Legislative Council in Gaza proclaimed the issuance of the National / Social Solidarity Act, which is said to be temporary and will be enforced till the end of this current year. This Law allows the imposition of a national solidarity tax on companies acting in Palestine, the net profits of which exceed the limit one million US-Dollars per annum. The solidarity tax should not exceed (100 %) of the value of the tobacco and its derivatives, as well as the rate of (10 %) of the services, whilst “wares / commodities” are tax exempted. Do you support or oppose this law ?”. (25.9 %) said:”I support”, (50.3 %) “oppose” and (23.8 %) said:”I don’t know”.

The Concerns of the Citizen

Responding to the question: “What is your main concern at present? “, (22.8%) answered ” job / money”, (33.4%) “the security”, (23.1%) “the health” and (20.7%) “the future”.

Optimism and Pessimism

With respect to the question:”Given the political and economic conditions prevailing over the Palestinian territories these days, are you optimist or pessimist about the future ?”, (45.3 %) said:”I’m optimistic”, (41.1 %) “pessimistic”, and (13.6) said:”I don’t know”.

Methodology of the Survey Study

Mr. Elias Kukali, Head of the Quantitative Researches Department at the PCPO, said that all interviews of this survey were conducted inside the respondents’ homes, i.e. face-to-face during different working hours, at least 5 hours a day, including the evening time, in order to ensure proper representation of those sub-groups of the population, which would otherwise be difficult to reach and selecting one individual in each household using Last Birthday Method. The choices were taken from a total of (168) election sites, from which (124) sites are located in West Bank and (44) sites in Gaza Strip according to the distribution of the Central Election Commission. These election sites were randomly chosen by using the method of the simple random sample. These in turn were the beginning of the random sample choice made from those regions in accordance with PCPO’s long experienced methodology.

Mr. Elias Kukali has further established that the margin of error was (±3.09 %) at a significance and confidence levels of (5.0%) and (95%) respectively. He added that the rate of the female respondents in this survey was (49.2%) against (50.8%) male respondents. The distribution of the random sample between the Palestinian two major regions was (61.8%) in the West Bank, including East Jerusalem, and (38.2%) in Gaza Strip.

The Palestinian Center for Public Opinion (PCPO) is a leading full service research institute in Palestine and in a position to organize, implement, handle and conduct national and regional field surveys, studies and researches of any size within the Middle East and North Africa (MENA). The PCPO is founded in February 1994 in Beit Sahour by Dr. Nabil Kukali, who became the president of this center since that time. After the arrival of the Palestinian Authority (PA), the PCPO was registered as a research center under license number (Am/2). The Palestinian Ministry of information issued the license that permits establishing satellite offices elsewhere in the West Bank and Gaza Strip. Furthermore, PCPO is registered as a licensed business at the Ministry of Treasury under number 989326251. The Palestinian Center for Public Opinion (PCPO) is an independent institution and is not affiliated or biased to any political inclination or party. In addition, public opinion polls and surveys are conducted by PCPO with utmost neutrality and professionalism and PCPO is devoted to provide researchers, research centers and universities, policy makers, Palestinian political parties, business men, the media, any parties interested or involved in Palestinian affairs as well as ordinary people with reliable information and data on the level and inclinations of the Palestinian public opinion with regard to topics and politics of general, public interest. In addition, we are a member of WIN/Gallup International, ANPOP, WAPOR and ESOMAR.